The Ohio State-Penn State, Georgia-Tennessee, and Florida-Mississippi State clashes are just a few of the games featuring in our college football betting tips, picks, and predictions for Week 5 of the 2018 season.
Virginia Tech at No. 22 Duke (-5, 51)
Pick: Blue Devils -5
Since 2014, Duke is just 4-8 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) hosting ACC foes kicking off with a single-digit line. The Blue Devils struggle to amass many points in this situation, posting just 18.5 per game. The UNDER has cashed in all but one, for what it’s worth.
Here is the kicker—no pun intended. Guess how many points Old Dominion averaged for the season prior to its 49-35 upset win as 27.5-point underdogs over the Hokies last Saturday? Close, 18.3 per contest. The figure is even uglier considering their first three opponents: Liberty, Florida International, and Charlotte.
What we’re getting at here is that Old Dominion exposed some serious mismatches and flaws in famed defensive coordinator Bud Foster’s young defense. Blue Devils head coach David Cutcliffe would be foolish not to dial up the same game plan. There’s just not enough time for Va. Tech to fix its core issues. Couple this with the injury to QB Josh Jackson, and the Hokies will not be able to keep up.
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (-20.5, 62)
Pick: Razorbacks +20.5
In the last 21 Southwest Classics, Arkansas has lost by more than three touchdowns once. Granted this is the second-longest line for the Hogs in this span, they’ll be up for this neutral-site encounter at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.
— Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) September 25, 2018
Georgia (-31.5, 52) at Tennessee
Pick: Georgia -31.5
This is the second most points Tennessee has ever been gifted on the oddsboard, coming up a few points shy of its 45-7 rout at Alabama as a 37-point underdog in 2017. The Vols are that bad. In fact, when they catch more than 17.5 points over the last 40 years, they are 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS.
Offense is nearly non-existent in this situation, averaging just 11.1 points per game. Toss out its romp over FCS East Tennessee in Week 2, and the Vols post just 19.7 on Saturdays—and it’s yet to play a true road game. If Tennessee scores 10, consider it a moral victory.
Oklahoma State (-18, 62) at Kansas
Pick: Jayhawks +18.5
Not only have we never laid 30-plus points in an SEC matchup, but it’s been nearly a decade since backing Kansas to cover the spread. The Jayhawks defense is much improved over the last few seasons, not allowing more than 27 points to an opponent in 2018. The unit has kept foes to 7.8 points below their projected team total. There is still value with this bunch.
It’s also a bonus that Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy suffered his worst loss as a home favorite in his career last Saturday, falling to Texas Tech 41-17 as 12-point chalk. The previous low mark was 13 points last year hosting TCU. The Cowboys have seemingly lost their spurs.
Florida at Mississippi State (-7.5, 51)
Pick: Bulldogs -7.5
Florida is 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 road contests at an SEC West opponent, losing by 10.7 points per game. The offense, which hasn’t produced in what feels like an eternity, averages 15.3 points per game in this scenario. The unit has surpassed three touchdowns just twice. The Gators will have to generate much more to keep up with Mississippi State and star QB Nick Fitzegerald. Bulldogs win by 10-plus.
Florida State (-6.5, 47) at Louisville
Pick: Seminoles -6.5, UNDER 47
This ACC matchup is the battle of the biggest underachievers. Louisville (-16.6) and Florida State (-16.8) sit at the bottom of the FBS in against-the-spread margin headed into Week 5. The Seminoles are the much better team talent-wise, however, and will put it all together very soon. Louisville, err.
Here’s a depressing fact for you: the Cardinals have scored 10 first half points all season, and the lone touchdown came against FCS Indiana State. Bobby Petrino’s offense is toothless without former Heisman Lamar Jackson. Another abysmal effort sees the Seminoles cover and the UNDER cash.
Ohio State (-3.5, 70) at Penn State
Pick: OVER 70
The total has jumped from an initial offer of 66.5 to 70 in a matter of 48 hours. We believe there is still value in the number. This will be a back-and-forth TD extravaganza. Must watch television (7:30 pm. ET, on ABC).
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) September 24, 2018
Oregon (-3, 58.5) at Cal
Pick: Ducks -3, OVER 58.5
Cal is a good team with a strong defense, but in addition to FCS Idaho State, it’s matched up against the 85th- (North Carolina) and 89th-ranked (BYU) scoring offenses in the country. Oregon, behind NFL-bound QB Justin Herbert, will prove too much to handle offensively.
Away teams in Pac-12 ranked matchups with a betting line within a field goal are 7-3 SU and ATS all-time, winning by 8.1 points per game. The Ducks push 35 points, and the Bears keep it close, but come up short in the end. Combined score ends up north of 60 points.
Utah (-1.5, 51) at Washington State
Pick: Utes -1.5
The line has crossed the fence in favor of Utah with Washington State opening a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. We’re took the leap. The Utes proved a 3-point favorite in our models.