Sports Betting Resources best MLB bets, picks, and tips for Wednesday, July 25, 2018 feature the Red Sox at Orioles, Astros at Rockies, and White Sox at Angels in the nightcap.
Red Sox (-175) at Orioles
Opening Line: -180, Boston
Opening Total: 9 (-115)
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
David Price (11-6 SU, 4.17 ERA) vs. Dylan Bundy (6-9, 4.57 ERA)
The Orioles are 10-49 catching more then +120 on the MLB oddsboard in 2018, losing by 2.6 runs per game. Fading the Birds has brought a healthy 29 percent return to bettors. Those brave enough to back opposing favorites on the run line are 39-19 overall, pocketing a 35.0 percent profit at +100.2 odds.
Baltimore’s game is bad all around under the above market conditions, but the offense really is the pits. It scores just 2.9 runs on 7.5 hits per game.
The Red Sox are 11-2 SU on the road after yielding 5 runs or more in the prior game of a series. The home team limps to an average 1.9 runs in the follow-up effort. As chalk, Boston is 7-2 on the run line in this spot, posting a 6-1 average score.
Sports Betting Resources projects a 5-3 finish for the Sox with Price on the hill, but the -110 to lay for the -1.5 handicap saps any value in the bet. UNDER 9 (+100) offers the best bang for one’s buck.
Best Bet: UNDER 9
Astros (-120) at Rockies
Opening Line: -128, Houston
Opening Total: 10 (-125)
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.96 ERA) vs. Jon Gray (8-7, 5.44 ERA)
Since 2004, opposing pitchers sporting an ERA under 3.50 into Coors Field during the month of July surrender 5.42 runs per game to the Rockies. The confines humble even the best arms. Expect Houston’s Charlie Morton and staff to come down to earth in this one.
In the last calendar year, the Astros gift 5.6 runs per game to those in the top half of scoring in seven road starts under Morton. Colorado ranks No. 7 in runs per game (4.87); nice price on the underdog for this coin-flip contest.
Best Bet: Rockies +110
White Sox at Angels (-215)
Opening Line: -225, Los Angeles
Opening Total: 8.5 (-110)
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
James Shields (4-11, 4.26 ERA) vs. Tyler Skaggs (7-6, 2.68 ERA)
Only three current White Sox batters have squared off against Angels’ starter Tyler Skaggs: Dustin Garneau, Jose Abreu, and Ryan LaMarre. The trio is a combined 1-for-9 with 4 strikeouts. Expect the southpaw to get the better of Chicago hitters early in the game with his repertoire of curves, sinkers, and change-ups.
Skaggs and the pen yield 3.2 runs per game at home in 10 post-May career starts against lineups crossing the plate less than 5.0 times per game. Chicago currently posts 4.0, ranking 24th in the bigs. Reaching its average will be a chore given the circumstances. The UNDER 8.5 (-110) offers value, if James Shields can put in a respectable effort.
Best Bet: UNDER 8.5