Sports Betting Resources’ best MLB bets, picks, and tips for Tuesday, August 14, 2018 feature a pair of over/unders in the Red Sox-Phillies and Mets-Orioles openers.
Red Sox (-132) at Phillies
Opening Line: -152 (Boston)
Opening Total: 9 (-115)
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Rick Porcello (14-5, 4.17 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (7-9, 4.51 ERA)
The UNDER has hit in two-thirds of Philly’s games coming off a loss in which they allowed more than five runs. It dropped the finale of a six-game road trip 9-3 in San Diego Sunday. The staff has rebounded in this spot, surrendering just 3.2 runs per game. Nick Pavetta has gifted no more than 4 to opponents in five outings under these conditions.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, gift just 3.5 runs per game in away contests coming off a road win. In eight starts with Rick Porcello on the hill, the number jumps slightly to 4.1.
Best Bet: UNDER 9
Plenty of early money is coming in on the Phillies. Despite 72 percent of the action on the Sox as of publication, the line has dropped to Boston -132 from a -152 opener. Call us square, but it’s asinine to bet against the streaking Sox right now. Boston is 30-6 SU in the last calendar year as road chalk with a total higher than 8 against right-handed starters. The final score (8.8) has stayed south of a 9.0 average total in 23 of the 36 contests. The Sox staff yields just 3.0 runs per game in this spot.
Mets (-105) at Orioles
Opening Line: -105, Baltimore
Opening Total: 9 (-125)
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Jason Vargas (2-8, 8.75 ERA) vs. Andrew Cashner (3-10, 4.83 ERA)
Jason Vargas has worked just one quality start in 11 road outings during the last calendar year. He and the bullpen gift 7.1 runs on 10.6 hits per game. Backers have lost 30.8 percent of their investment at +133.9 average odds. Andrew Cashner and Co., meanwhile, have yielded 5.5 runs per game at home during this same stretch. Teams are 4-12 SU, losing 33.7 percent at +115.7 odds.
Clubs have won just two of Cashner’s 19 outings in the last year in which they did not support the right-hander with 5 runs or more. Vargas’ teams have picked up five victories in 15 games under the same conditions.
The Orioles score 4.0 runs per game against left-handed starters this season, going off at average 139.1 odds. When the line is less (-108 avg.), they cross the plate 4.4 times per game.
The Mets score 4.0 runs per game against right-handed starters this season, going of at average 100.8 odds. When the line is less (-132 avg.), they cross the plate just 3.8 times per game.
Best Bet: OVER 9.5
Two poor hitting teams should have big nights Tuesday. Vargas and Cashner combined are yielding 12.4 runs per game over their last seven starts. One, if not both, will get chased early. Enough damage will be inflicted to see this game sail past the 9.5 mark. Five of the last six Mets’ road interleague matchups have hit the OVER, a 12.5 final score easily topping an 8.8 average total.