The Buffalo Bills’ win total for the upcoming 2018 NFL regular season has slid from an initial offer of 7.5 in May to 6 as of Monday at South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas. That’s a huge dip in terms of football futures betting. Over the last 20 years, two victories is the median difference from one year to the next for pro teams. Buffalo went 9-7 in 2017, snapping a 17-year playoff drought with a trip to the AFC Wild Card game. It’s win total closed at 6.5 prior to the start of last season.
Bettors are most bullish on the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants. Each has seen their number of wins jump a full game since opening. The Browns moved from 5 to 6 victories; the Giants 6.5 to 7.5.
Cleveland has only notched 7 wins or more twice in the last 15 years. One has to go back to 2002 to uncover the last time oddsmakers expected a .500 season (8 win total) out of the Browns. Let us remind you, Hue Jackson is 1-31 SU and 9-23 ATS as their head coach. The current number is inflated.
The Giants move is understandable given they kicked off with a 9.5 win total last season. New head coach Pat Shurmur is changing the culture, systems, and schemes. Many expect a positive effect. One has to question whether the change will reinvigorate quarterback Eli Manning, however.
The two-time Super Bowl champion is regressing fast in his later years, the offense suffering as a result. New York averages 17.2 points per game over the last two seasons. Half of its 14 wins in this stretch have come in 10 games against teams averaging less than 21 points per contest the prior season. The G-Men are 7-16 SU in all other matchups. They square off against 11 teams in 2018 that put up more than three touchdowns last year.
Here’s a look at 2018 NFL win total adjustments since May for all the teams: