Week 2 NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread

Sports Betting Resources’ Week 2 NFL expert picks against the spread and predictions include the Eagles, Saints, Redskins, and Texans. Brief analysis and selections here:

Eagles (-3) at Buccaneers

Pick Against the Spread (ATS): Philadelphia -3

The Eagles post 27.9 points per game in nine road contests under head coach Doug Pederson when squaring off against an opponent coming off a .500 record or worse the prior season. Tampa recorded a 5-11 straight-up (SU) mark in 2017.

Since 2016, the Bucs are 3-8 SU and 2-8-1 ATS when allowing more than 11 points at home. An inconsistent and sloppy offense (1.9 turnovers per game) fails to keep up. Not even Nostradamus would predict Tampa putting up 40-plus points two weeks in a row with backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Philly rolls by more than a touchdown.

Browns at Saints (-9.5)

Pick ATS: New Orleans -9.5

The Browns are still the Browns, going 1-31-1 SU and 10-23 ATS under head coach Hue Jackson . The fact they somehow managed a tie against the mighty Steelers in the opener appears like a moral victory on the surface, but it isn’t. Cleveland accrued a lopsided plus-five turnover margin in the AFC North rivalry, yet still couldn’t eke out a win. To put this in perspective, teams are 216-7-1 SU and winning by 18.8 points per game when gaining as big an advantage in the takeaway department since 1989.

Saints QB Drew Brees posts 30.2 points per game as a touchdown favorite or greater at the Superdome in his career. Can the Browns offense challenge? Doubtful.

Colts at Redskins (-6)

Pick: UNDER 48.5

The Colts went to the air on 71 percent of offensive plays in Week 1, unusually high for a NFL team holding a halftime lead (16-10 vs. Bengals). Franchise QB Andrew Luck’s arm is a hose. Might as well abuse the best weapon on the field. Nonetheless, it makes Indy too one-dimensional. The Colts can’t come out with a similar pass-heavy plan Sunday. The Redskins’ defense will have an advantage. Expect a more balanced approach.

Redskins head coach Jay Gruden, meanwhile, cherishes possession, and will lean on the run given the opportunity. Our model pits the combined score at 47.0, giving a slight advantage to the current number (48.5).

Texans at Titans (-2.5)

Pick: OVER 43

It’s rare when the wise guys and public hammer a wager together. That’s the case for the Texans this weekend with nearly 83 percent backing across online shops and several high-profile bets in the $50,000-plus range taken in Las Vegas.

The safer play is the OVER according to our model. Houston is a much different beast with Deshaun Watson under center, both offensively and defensively. In eight regular-season contests tossing 10 passes or more, the Texans average 29.4 points per game. The OVER has hit in five, by a whopping 12.2 margin. Both teams reach the mid 20s here and easily top a 43 total. Go against the line movement and profit.