A pair of underdogs and two over/under wagers highlight our Week 4 NFL expert picks. Tips, trends, and predictions here. Cowboys, Giants, Patriots, and the Falcons’ games are included.
Lions at Cowboys (-3, O/U 44)
Pick: UNDER 44
The first team to 20 points wins the Lions-Cowboys clash. The combined score in Dallas’ first three games are 24, 33, and 37 points. The offense has zero weapons outside of RB Ezekiel Elliott and QB Dak Prescott. There are few options down the field.
Planning against head coach Jason Garrett’s men is easy. As the Seahawks showed last week, allow the offense to feed the ball to Elliot, but contain it at all costs. The third-year pro rushed for 127 yards at Seattle, his most productive output since 2016, yet the ‘Boys managed a measly 13 points. The game theory prevents an already-lackluster downfield attack from surprising one over the top with a false sense of security. The Lions would be daft to avoid a similar approach.
Detroit’s Matt Stafford is the king of picking up garbage points late in games, but not under these specific betting conditions. As a road underdog with a total of 45 or less, the Lions post just 15.7 points per game with the veteran arm under center. The UNDER is 10-5 all-time with a -2.9 average margin.
Saints (-3.5, O/U 50.5) at Giants
Pick New York +3.5
It is no secret the Giants’ offense stinks the last couple of years, particularly QB Eli Manning. To give you an idea at how far expectations have fallen consider this stat: New York is 12-9 SU and 15-6 ATS when scoring 17 points or more in a contest since 2016. Only. 17. Points.
The dynamic rookie RB Saquon Barkely is pepping some life into the G-Men offense. Averaging 4.7 yards per carry, defenses have to respect the reinvigorated ground game, which subsequently improves the passing attack. Manning tossed for 297 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 25-of-29 passes on the road against a decent NFL defense last week. Hello? Is this 2007? The Saints, meanwhile, are yielding 10.9 passing yards per attempt! Is this real life?
The fact bettors can gobble up the hook with New York is no-brainer in a game they have a real shot at winning. Watch and learn how Barkely is changing the dynamic:
— New York Giants (@Giants) September 26, 2018
Dolphins at Patriots (-7, O/U 48)
Pick: Miami +7
You are always playing with fire betting against Tom Brady and the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, but something is way off with the reigning AFC Champions. Inaccuracy plagues the GOAT and the defense couldn’t stop a Pee-Wee team. New England owns a 48.7 opponent third-down percentage (30th in the NFL) and surrenders 406.3 yards per game (28th); all this against the “mighty” Texans, Jags, and Lions’ offenses. Sigh.
Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is 3-10 SU and 2-11 ATS on the road against AFC East rivals, failing to cover a 3.7 average line by 7.7 points per game. The offense manages just 13.7 points per contest. Honestly, this might be enough accumulation to see this trend start to turn the other way against the current New England team. Contrarian play time.
Bengals at Falcons (-5, O/U 51.5)
Pick: OVER 51.5
Square bettor alert! The public is pounding the OVER in the Falcons-Bengals matchup with 81 percent of the tickets across the major online sportsbooks backing the wager. The line is as high as 52 at some shops from a 48 opener. Our advice: follow the herd.
The Bengals offense is averaging a hard-earned 29.7 points per game, putting up 34 at Indy, 34 hosting the Ravens, and 21 at Carolina last week. These are some of the better defenses in the league, folks.
The Falcons unit may be one of the best in the NFC, too, but a redesigned offense and an improved O-line has Cincy rolling. Look for QB Andy Dalton and crew to make it an efficient afternoon with both high-powered offenses trading points tit-for-tat. For what it’s worth, the OVER is 8-3 all-time when Matt Ryan goes off a home favorite against non-divisional foes with a total north of 50, while the UNDER has hit in seven of eight all-time with Marvin Lewis leading the Bengals above the same number. Something’s gotta give, and we predict it will be defense. You can still pick up 51.5 at the best online, bitcoin-exclusive sports book Nitrogen Sports here.