Boston College Overvalued at Wake?

Our prediction models suggest Boston College is a tad overvalued on the college football oddsboard as it travels to Wake Forest Thursday afternoon ahead of Hurricane Florence. The Demon Deacons present athleticism and talent unseen by the Eagles thus far. The results will be tight.

Boston College (-6.5) vs. Wake Forest

Opening Line: Eagles -4
Opening Total: 53.5
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. ET
Site: BB&T Field, Winston Salem, NC

Note: With Hurricane Florence set to batter North Carolina, the start time has been moved up two hours to 5:30 p.m. ET

Line Movement

Boston College opened a 4-point favorite on Sunday, rising to as high as a touchdown within 24 hours. The number has since leveled off bouncing back and forth between -6 and -7 offshore. A 53.5 total dropped to 49.5 before a cash infusion pushed it back up to 52. The number again is in steady retreat, down to 50.5 as of publication (September 11).

Prediction Analysis

This is just the ninth time in six seasons head coach Steve Addazio has led Boston College (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) into a road test as the betting favorite. The against-the-spread results are not too flattering, especially in projected competitive contests. Laying less than two touchdowns, the Eagles are 1-4 ATS, with all but one game finishing within six points. One of these included a 23-17 win at Wake Forest (2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS) in 2014 gifting 13 points.

Most believe this is the best offense the defensive-minded Addazio has fielded in Chesnut Hill yet. It’s averaging 604.5 yards and 58.5 points per game, although against cupcake state opponents UMass and FCS Holy Cross. Still, the Eagles did score 13.2 and 11.0 points more than projected in the market, but their first real test against a conference unit will reveal how talented the bunch is.

One thing to note is that Addazio is just 4-5 SU on the road against unranked ACC foes that compiled more wins than the Eagles the prior season. Wake tallied 8 versus Boston’s College’s 7 in 2017. The Eagles lose by 7.3 points per game in this spot. They have kicked off the betting favorite once, falling to Syracuse 34-31 as 2-point chalk in 2013.

Wake, meanwhile, is 2-7 SU and 5-4 ATS as a home underdog under head coach Dave Clawson. Establishing any kind of running game is an issue, the Demon Deacons limping to 92.9 yards per game on 33.9 carries. They average 19.1 points, but a stout defense has helped maintain a -6.1 point differential.

Pick

Our models rated this game nearer a pick ‘em at the beginning of the year with a small lean to Boston College through the first two games of the 2018 campaign. Wake is prone to giving up big plays since midway through 2017, especially now with a banged up secondary. The running back brigade is potent, however, and WR Greg Dortch is flashing NFL talent with 510 all-purpose yards, the most of any player nationally. If Boston College wins, it will be within 4 points. Back Wake +6.5.

Projected score

Eagles 24-23