DFS QB Betting Odds Tip Sheet

One of many DFS strategies for buying QBs is to target those on teams with favorable betting odds in a matchup. The belief is their fantasy production will correlate to the number of points their team is projected to score (implied team total). To calculate the underdog’s predicted points, subtract the game’s spread from its over/under and divide by two. Then add back spread for the favorite’s points.

The NFL betting market is highly efficient, and a wonderful tool to utilize with the abovementioned approach. Analyzing how QBs do under specific market conditions, particularly in relation to game spreads, can uncover oodles of added value. The Lions’ Matt Stafford, for example, averages more fantasy points as a short-priced favorite of 4.5 points or less than he does laying more with near identical game totals in his career.

The best part about targeting QBs in relation to betting markets is their consistency. It is the most predictable position to forecast from year to year in the NFL, even in the face of team, coordinator, or system changes. This primarily is due to the fact nearly two-thirds of a team’s yardage and touchdowns come via the air. No matter the scheme, an NFL signal-caller is going to toss it up in bunches.

DFS/Prop Bet QB Tip Sheet

Below is a DFS QB cheat sheet you can use showing basic passing stats based on certain betting conditions. Listed are essential results for the top 25 projected fantasy QBs in 2018 based on past status as favorites or underdogs. It also configures career stats above or below their market averages in each area. It’s a great tips sheet for QB prop bets as well.

QBs must have attempted more than 10 passes in a game, and played in more than 20 NFL contests for consideration. Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Tribusky, and Patrick Mahomes are therefore missing.

Table Key:

F = favorite; D = underdog; HF(<) = heavy favorite greater than average; SPF(>+) = short-priced favorite greater than or equal to average; HD(>=) = heavy underdog greater than or equal to average; SPD(<) = short-priced underdog less than average

 

Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Tom Brady Career -5.5 45.5 287 35.7 265.8 7.4 1.9 0.7
F -7.7 45.6 232 35.8 268.5 7.5 2 0.6
D 4.1 45.3 50 35.3 254.3 7.2 1.6 0.8
HF(<) -11.9 46.1 93 35.8 268.7 7.5 2.2 0.6
SPF(>=) -4.9 45.2 139 35.8 268.4 7.5 1.9 0.7
HD(>=) 7.7 44.4 14 31.4 208.8 6.7 1.4 0.8
SPD(<) 2.7 45.7 36 36.8 272 7.4 1.7 0.9
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Aaron Rodgers Career -4 47 159 34.5 269.8 7.8 2.2 0.6
F -6.6 46.9 119 34.6 277.1 8 2.3 0.5
D 3.6 47.6 39 34.1 248.7 7.3 1.8 0.7
HF(<) -9.9 47 52 33.8 279.3 8.3 2.6 0.4
SPF(>=) -4 46.9 67 35.2 275.4 7.8 2.1 0.6
HD(>=) 5.4 47.5 15 35.3 251.1 7.1 1.8 0.7
SPD(<) 2.4 47.6 24 33.4 247.2 7.4 1.8 0.6
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Russell Wilson Career -4.8 43.3 108 29.4 231 7.9 1.7 0.6
F -7.3 42.9 82 29.2 231.2 7.9 1.6 0.6
D 3.1 44.6 26 29.9 230.7 7.7 1.8 0.7
HF(<) -11.3 42.3 36 28.2 227.6 8.1 1.6 0.6
SPF(>=) -4.2 43.3 46 30 234 7.8 1.7 0.6
HD(>=) 5.2 46.6 8 28.4 213.9 7.5 2.2 0.5
SPD(<) 2.2 43.6 18 30.6 238.1 7.8 1.7 0.7
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Cam Newton Career -0.6 45.3 116 31.4 231.9 7.4 1.4 0.9
F -4.8 44.5 64 31.1 227.7 7.3 1.5 0.8
D 4.8 46.2 50 31.8 236.9 7.4 1.4 1
HF(<) -7.7 44.2 24 29.5 229.2 7.8 1.8 0.8
SPF(>=) -3 44.7 40 32 226.8 7.1 1.3 0.8
HD(>=) 7.3 46.2 22 34.6 262.9 7.6 1.5 1.2
SPD(<) 2.8 46.3 28 29.6 216.6 7.3 1.3 0.9
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Drew Brees Career -2.2 47.8 260 37.8 286.7 7.6 2 0.9
F -6 48.2 162 37.9 298.8 7.9 2.2 0.9
D 4.1 47.2 95 37.4 266.5 7.1 1.6 0.9
HF(<) -9.3 48.2 64 37.4 293.4 7.8 2.4 0.8
SPF(>=) -3.8 48.2 98 38.3 302.3 7.9 2.1 1
HD(>=) 6.1 48 38 37.5 272.8 7.3 1.7 0.8
SPD(<) 2.7 46.7 57 37.4 262.4 7 1.6 1
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Carson Wentz Career -1.4 45.2 29 36.1 244.1 6.8 1.7 0.7
F -5.6 45.6 15 33.3 242.2 7.3 1.9 0.5
D 3.5 44.5 12 40.2 250.2 6.2 1.2 1
HF(<) -8.8 44.8 7 39.4 254 6.4 1.1 1.1
SPF(>=) -3.4 46.2 9 33.8 253.2 7.5 1.3 0.6
HD(>=) 5.1 44.5 5 41.4 244.8 5.9 1.4 0.8
SPD(<) 2.4 44.4 7 39.4 254 6.4 1.1 1.1
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Andrew Luck Career -0.1 47.9 76 38.3 275.1 7.2 1.9 1.1
F -4.4 47.4 44 37.7 282.8 7.5 2 1
D 5.8 48.6 32 39.2 264.6 6.8 1.7 1.2
HF(<) -7.3 46.6 18 35.4 271.6 7.7 2.1 1
SPF(>=) -2.4 48.1 26 39.3 290.5 7.4 1.9 1
HD(>=) 7.7 49.9 18 42 272.1 6.5 1.8 1.3
SPD(<) 3.3 46.9 14 35.5 255.1 7.2 1.6 0.9
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Kirk Cousins Career 1.4 46.4 60 35.4 272.5 7.7 1.6 0.8
F -4.6 45.1 19 33.4 264.5 7.9 1.6 0.9
D 4.3 46.9 39 36.2 276.2 7.6 1.7 0.8
HF(<) -7.1 46.4 7 32.3 249.4 7.7 1.4 1
SPF(>=) -3.1 44.4 12 34.1 273.3 8 1.7 0.8
HD(>=) 7.2 48 14 37.1 284 7.7 1.9 1
SPD(<) 2.8 46.3 25 35.7 271.8 7.6 1.6 0.7
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Matt Stafford Career 0.3 46.2 128 38.8 278.5 7.2 1.7 0.9
F -4.5 45.5 64 39.1 295.3 7.6 2 0.9
D 5.6 46.9 57 39.3 263.6 6.7 1.4 1.1
HF(<) -7.3 45.7 25 36.2 275.7 7.6 1.8 1.2
SPF(>=) -2.7 45.4 39 40.9 307.9 7.5 2.2 0.7
HD(>=) 9 47.3 24 38.8 247.6 6.4 1.1 1.3
SPD(<) 3.2 46.6 33 39.7 275.2 6.9 1.6 0.9
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Jared Goff Career 0.1 45 23 31.6 224 7.1 1.5 0.6
F -4.9 45.6 12 33.8 269.2 8 1.9 0.7
D 6.7 44.4 9 29.4 176.6 6 1 0.7
HF(<) -7.1 45.1 6 32.8 256 7.8 2.5 0.5
SPF(>=) -2.7 46.1 6 34.7 282.3 8.1 1.3 0.8
HD(>=) 11 42.4 4 27.2 157.5 5.8 1 0.8
SPD(<) 3.3 46.1 5 31.2 191.8 6.1 1 0.6
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Matt Ryan Career -1.2 47.2 166 35.7 267.2 7.5 1.7 0.8
F -4.9 46.7 100 35.1 266.3 7.6 1.7 0.8
D 4.5 47.8 63 36.2 268.3 7.4 1.6 0.9
HF(<) -7.6 46.3 44 34.2 270.2 7.9 1.8 0.7
SPF(>=) -2.7 47 56 35.9 263.2 7.3 1.7 0.8
HD(>=) 7.1 47.4 26 37.1 249.2 6.7 1.3 1
SPD(<) 2.6 48 37 35.6 281.7 7.9 1.8 0.8
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Alex Smith Career -0.6 43.1 156 30.8 213.1 6.9 1.2 0.6
F -5.4 42.6 90 30.1 217.8 7.2 1.3 0.6
D 6.2 44 62 31.6 204.4 6.5 1.1 0.8
HF(<) -8.1 42.8 40 30.1 226.8 7.5 1.4 0.5
SPF(>=) -3.2 42.5 50 30.1 210.6 7 1.3 0.6
HD(>=) 10.1 43.1 25 31 190.3 6.1 1 1
SPD(<) 3.5 44.6 37 32 213.9 6.7 1.1 0.6
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Ben Roethlisberger Career -3.9 42 221 32.4 254.8 7.9 1.6 0.9
F -6.2 41.6 168 32 256.1 8 1.7 0.8
D 3.6 43.1 49 34.2 254.8 7.4 1.4 1.1
HF(<) -9.4 41 71 30.8 246.9 8 1.7 0.8
SPF(>=) -3.8 42.1 97 32.9 262.9 8 1.7 0.9
HD(>=) 7 45.2 11 37 298.5 8.1 1.9 0.9
SPD(<) 2.6 42.4 38 33.4 242.1 7.2 1.3 1.1
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Marcus Mariota Career 0.6 44.5 42 31.6 233.5 7.4 1.5 0.8
F -4 43.9 19 28.7 210.5 7.3 1.3 0.6
D 4.5 45.2 22 33.8 252.3 7.5 1.6 1
HF(<) -6.1 43.6 7 28.6 218.9 7.7 1.3 0.4
SPF(>=) -2.7 44 12 28.8 205.7 7.1 1.2 0.8
HD(>=) 6.7 45.3 11 34.5 260.4 7.5 1.3 1.2
SPD(<) 2.3 45.1 11 33.1 244.2 7.4 2 0.7
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Dak Prescott Career -2.5 47.1 32 30.6 226.8 7.4 1.5 0.6
F -4.5 46.9 23 30.9 232.3 7.5 1.7 0.5
D 3.5 47.9 7 28.7 226.4 7.9 0.9 0.9
HF(<) -6.4 47.9 10 30.5 255.7 8.4 2.2 0.3
SPF(>=) -3.1 46.1 13 31.2 214.3 6.9 1.4 0.7
HD(>=) 4.8 48 3 29.3 189.3 6.5 1 1.3
SPD(<) 2.5 47.8 4 28.2 254.2 9 0.8 0.5
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Philip Rivers Career -2.3 45.4 202 33.5 259.8 7.8 1.7 0
F -6.7 44.6 118 32.5 261.7 8 1.7 0.7
D 4.2 46.6 77 35.1 258.3 7.4 1.7 1.1
HF(<) -9.8 44.1 54 30 244.6 8.1 1.6 0.6
SPF(>=) -4 45.1 64 34.6 276.1 8 1.8 0.8
HD(>=) 7.3 47.8 26 37 274 7.4 2.1 0.9
SPD(<) 2.6 46.1 51 34.2 250.2 7.3 1.6 1.2
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Andy Dalton Career -1.1 43.5 112 33.1 235.3 7.1 1.5 0.9
F -5 43.2 62 32.7 239.9 7.3 1.6 0.9
D 4.1 43.9 45 33.6 229.6 6.8 1.4 0.8
HF(<) -7.7 43.4 27 31.9 250.7 7.9 1.9 0.8
SPF(>=) -3 43 35 33.3 231.5 7 1.5 1
HD(>=) 6.8 43.2 15 30.1 199.8 6.6 1.4 0.7
SPD(<) 2.8 44.2 30 35.3 244.5 6.9 1.4 0.8
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Blake Bortles Career 2.5 43.4 65 35.6 238.8 6.7 1.4 1
F -4.6 41.9 19 35.8 249.4 7 1.5 0.8
D 5.6 44 45 35.2 233.7 6.6 1.4 1
HF(<) -8.2 40.3 6 34 244 7.2 1.7 0.2
SPF(>=) -2.9 42.6 13 36.7 251.9 6.9 1.4 1.2
HD(>=) 8.5 44.4 19 32.6 218.3 6.7 1 1.2
SPD(<) 3.4 43.7 26 37.1 245 6.6 1.7 1
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Case Keenum Career -0.6 42.2 41 32.6 227.5 7 1.2 0.7
F -5.5 41.6 20 32.1 223.8 7 1.2 0.8
D 4.6 43.1 19 33.4 232.4 7 1.3 0.7
HF(<) -10.4 40.7 7 30.4 205.9 6.8 1.3 0.6
SPF(>=) -2.9 42.2 13 33 233.5 7.1 1.2 0.8
HD(>=) 7.4 42.9 8 31.4 208.9 6.7 0.5 0.5
SPD(<) 2.5 43.2 11 34.8 249.5 7.2 1.8 0.8
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Ryan Tannehill Career 0.8 43.8 76 34.6 242.6 7 1.4 0.9
F -4.3 42.9 31 34.2 240.4 7 1.6 0.7
D 4.7 44.6 42 34.6 244 7 1.2 1
HF(<) -6.1 42.1 15 34.3 248.1 7.2 2 0.9
SPF(>=) -2.6 43.6 16 34.1 233.2 6.8 1.3 0.6
HD(>=) 8.3 46.4 15 36.1 245.9 6.8 1 1.1
SPD(<) 2.7 43.5 27 33.8 243 7.2 1.3 0.9
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Eli Manning Career -0.4 44.7 225 34.6 241.2 7 1.6 1.1
F -5 44.3 119 33.7 236.7 7 1.5 1
D 5 45.2 99 35.4 245.1 6.9 1.6 1.1
HF(<) -7.9 43.4 47 33.8 247.9 7.3 1.7 1.1
SPF(>=) -3 44.9 72 33.6 229.3 6.8 1.4 0.9
HD(>=) 7.5 45.3 43 33.4 231.7 6.9 1.5 0.9
SPD(<) 3.2 45.2 56 36.9 255.5 6.9 1.7 1.3
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Derek Carr Career 2.6 45.8 62 36.2 236.9 6.5 1.7 0.7
F -3.8 46.8 20 35.2 263.2 7.5 1.9 0.7
D 5.8 45.2 41 37 225.7 6.1 1.6 0.7
HF(<) -6.4 45.4 7 33.1 256.6 7.7 2.3 0.3
SPF(>=) -2.5 47.5 13 36.3 266.8 7.3 1.7 0.9
HD(>=) 8.7 44.6 20 38.1 214.4 5.6 1.6 0.8
SPD(<) 3 45.8 21 36 236.4 6.6 1.6 0.7
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Jameis Winston Career 2.5 46.2 44 34.9 263.1 7.5 1.6 1
F -3 44.7 12 33.8 249 7.4 1.4 0.9
D 4.8 46.9 30 35.4 268.5 7.6 1.6 1
HF(<) -4.8 45.1 4 38.8 248.2 6.4 1.5 0.5
SPF(>=) -2.1 44.5 8 31.2 249.4 8 1.4 1.1
HD(>=) 7 47.4 15 34.5 260.4 7.5 1.4 0.9
SPD(<) 2.6 46.3 15 36.2 276.7 7.6 1.9 1.1
Name Fave/Dog/Career Avg. Line Avg. Total Games Passes Passing Yards Yards per Pass Passing TDs Ints
Joe Flacco Career -2.3 42.2 167 34.3 233.1 6.8 1.3 0.8
F -6 41.5 103 33.4 234.2 7 1.4 0.8
D 3.8 43.3 61 35.4 232 6.5 1.3 0.9
HF(<) -9.6 40.6 43 32.1 241.5 7.5 1.4 0.5
SPF(>=) -3.4 42.2 60 34.3 228.9 6.7 1.4 0.9
HD(>=) 6.3 44.5 22 38.5 233.4 6.1 1.4 1.2
SPD(<) 2.4 42.6 39 33.7 231.2 6.9 1.2 0.8