Win Totals Rightfully Stale For New SEC Football Coaches

The SEC is a coaching carousel in college football due to the success of Alabama’s Nick Saban. Rival programs are desperately looking for a leader to build a program worthy of knocking the Crimson Tide off the top spot. This encompasses 28 new hires since 2008, including a modern-day record five for the upcoming campaign (2018): Dan Mullen (Florida), Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M), Jae Moorehead (Mississippi State), Chad Morris, (Arkansas) and Jeremy Pruitt (Tennessee).

How much success will they have in their first year? Updated win totals futures and odds for each new hire is as follows (5Dimes sportsbook): Florida O/U 8 (-115/-105), Mississippi State O/U 8 (-170/+140), Texas A&M O/U 7 (-178/+148), Arkansas O/U 6 (+131/-151), Tennessee O/U 7 (+105/-135)

Fans, bettors, and more should temper the prospect of any earth-shattering changes in 2018. Since 2005, the average win-loss difference from the prior season for SEC schools breaking in a new head coach is just 2.4 games; vital information for those betting college football futures. In fact, new coaches in the division are just 72-78 all-time posting a better winning percentage than their predecessor.

Below is a table showing the win-loss records of SEC hires since 2005, including the team’s prior mark:

 

Season School Coach Previous W/L Record W/L Record
2017 LSU Ed Orgeron 8-4 9-4
2017 Ole Miss Matt Luke 5-7 6-6
2016 Georgia Kirby Smart 10-3 8-5
2016 Missouri Barry Odom 5-7 4-8
2016 South Carolina Will Muschamp 3-9 6-7
2015 Florida Jim McElwain 7-5 10-4
2014 Vanderbilt Derek Mason 9-4 3-9
2013 Arkansas Bret Bielema 4-8 3-9
2013 Auburn Gus Malzahn 3-9 12-2
2013 Kentucky Mark Stoops 2-10 2-10
2013 Tennessee Butch Jones 5-7 5-7
2012 Arkansas John L. Smith 11-2 4-8
2012 Ole Miss Hugh Freeze 2-10 7-6
2012 Texas A&M Kevin Sumlin 7-6 11-2
2011 Vanderbilt James Franklin 2-10 6-7
2011 Florida Will Muschamp 8-5 7-6
2010 Kentucky Joker Phillips 7-6 6-6
2010 Tennessee Derek Dooley 7-6 6-7
2010 Vanderbilt Robbie Caldwell 2-10 2-10
2009 Auburn Gene Chizik 5-7 8-5
2009 Mississippi St. Dan Mullen 4-8 5-7
2009 Tennessee Lane Kiffin 5-7 7-6
2008 Arkansas Bobby Petrino 8-5 5-7
2008 Ole Miss Houston Nutt 3-9 9-4
2007 Alabama Nick Saban 6-7 7-6
2005 Florida Urban Meyer 7-5 9-3
2005 LSU Les Miles 9-3 11-2
2005 Ole Miss Ed Orgeron 4-7 3-8
2005 South Carolina Steve Spurrier 6-5 7-5