To say Michigan struggles on the road against the nation’s top programs is an understatement. The offense stumbles mightily. Continue reading for some eye-opening trends:
Michigan (-2.5) at Notre Dame
Opening line: Wolverines -3.5 Opening total: N/A
Date: Sept. 1, 2018 (7:30 p.m. ET)
Records: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS, 5-6-2 O/U
Avg. margin: 6.4
Avg. line: -9.3
Avg. total: 45.7
Notre Dame (2017)
Records: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS, 6-6-1 O/U
Avg. margin: 12.8
Avg. line: -9.9
Avg total: 56.6
Since 1994, Michigan is 2-19 SU and 6-15 ATS in away games against ranked opponents. This includes an 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS mark under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Generating points is a problem for the one-time Woody Hayes Trophy winner. Against Ohio State State (2016), Penn State (2017) and Wisconsin (2017), the Wolverines put up 17, 13, and 10 points in regulation time. The 2016 trip to the Shoe witnessed Michigan score 10 points in extra time during a 30-27 double-overtime loss. Harbaugh’s men average 271.0 total yards in the three defeats.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, ranked in the AP Top 25 from Week 5 on in 2017, capping a 10-win season with a 21-17 victory over LSU in the Citrus Bowl. The Irish return six starters to a defense that held a trio of ranked opponents (Michigan State, Georgia, and USC) to 20 points or less at South Bend last year. Key losses include LB Nyles Morgan, LB Greer Martini, and DB Drue Tranquill.
Expect a low-scoring game. The total will likely open in the upper 40s to near 50 points, as defense will dominate on both sides. Don’t be shied away from wagering south of the number. The UNDER is 20-5-1 when Notre Dame kicks off at home with a line in the single digits under head coach Brian Kelly. A 44.9 combined score is coming up 8.6 points short of a 53.5 over/under.
Projected Score: Notre Dame 24, Michigan 21