Four against-the-spread picks and a pair of over/unders offer betting value this NFL Week 3 Sunday. Check out our plays, complete with tips, trends, and more.
Packers (-2.5) at Redskins
Pick: Green Bay -2.5 (-125)
Packers’ star QB Aaron Rodgers is just 4-10 straight-up (SU) and 3-11 against the spread (ATS) as short-priced road favorite of a field goal or less versus an opponent yielding fewer than 24.5 points per game. The Redskins enter having given up 27 altogether through their first two weeks. It is not that Green Bay cannot score in this situation. Rodgers leads the team to an average 23.5 points. The defense, however, has its difficulties.
This matchup will comedown to whether Washington can keep up on the scoreboard. It is moving the ball well, but coming up short when and where it counts. The team has found the back of the end zone in just half it’s possessions inside the opponent’s 20-yard line thus far, ranking T-19 in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage. This typically is something that is not fixed overnight and will likely be an issue all season.
Bears (-5.5) at Cardinals
Pick: Chicago +5.5 (-110)
Laying the points with Chicago is the square play of the week with nearly 76 percent of bets placed across major online sportsbooks in support. We’re jumping on board too. If Orange is the New Black, than the Cardinals are the new Browns. Arizona lacks much of anything, including an identity.
This marks the first game since 2012 the Bears are laying more than a field goal on the road. They are 12-0 SU and 9-2-1 ATS under these conditions in their last 12 contests, topping a -6.0 by 11.25 points per game. It takes a special kind of bad to see this scenario, and the betting market still tends to strikeout on its valuations. Preach it Akiem Hicks:
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 20, 2018
Colts at Eagles (-7)
Pick: Indianapolis +7 (-125)
Carson Wentz returns under center for Philly, but honestly, despite what you read, it’s not that big of an upgrade. Since being drafted, the Eagles average 26.6 points with the third-year pro tossing 10 passes or more in a contest. Nick Foles has attempted as many in nine games in this span, posting almost identical figures at 25.4 points per tilt.
Something is just off with the Philly offense. This was clear as early as the preseason. It’s missing the same explosiveness and big-play ability as in it’s 2018 Lombardi Trophy-winning campaign. Colts QB Andrew Luck, on the other hand, can conjure up 20-yard gains anytime, anywhere, and against anybody. If Indy stuns here, it could be a cheeky championship contender. Current Super Bowl odds here.
49ers at Chiefs (-7)
Pick: San Francisco +7 (-125); OVER 55.5
This will be the game to watch on television, as the total is set as high as 56 at some online sportsbooks. For what it’s worth, it’s the third highest over/under ever at Arrowhead Stadium.
First-year gunslinger Patrick Mahomes set an NFL record with 10 TDs through the first two weeks. Odds suggest another pass-happy clash is in store. We’re not sure the ‘Niners and head coach Kyle Shanahan is the right fit to engage in such a fight. Since refining his offense with the 2015 Falcons, Shanahan has never lost by more than 6 points in seven games with a total higher than 48.5. The OVER has cashed in all but one as well.
Steelers (-1) at Buccaneers
Pick: UNDER 53.5 (-110)
The Steelers defense has steadily declined ever since legendary coordinator Dick LeBeau departed to Tennessee before the 2015 season. The unit is near laughable right now, yielding 26.8 points per game in its last 10 dating back to a 40-17 Week 11 win over the Titans in 2017. Pittsburgh is just 2-8 ATS in this stretch.
In the 10-games prior to this poor run, Pittsburgh allowed 18.3 per tilt. Reversion to the mean is near, and it begins this week. Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is flashing some brilliance through the first two games, but bettors have seen this act before. Will the real Ryan Fitz please stand up? Soon. Very soon.