WNBA Sunday: Sparks, Sun Battle for Playoff Seed in Season Finale

Below is a quick betting preview detailing four of six final WNBA regular-season games on Sunday, all but one is holding playoff implications. These include the Sparks at Sun, Fever at Sky, Dream at Aces, and Wings at Storm. Best bets and model projections included.

Sparks at Sun (-4)

Opening Line: Connecticut -4
Opening Total: 158.5
Tip Off: 3 p.m. ET

This matchup is the most critical of all Sunday in terms of the postseason with the Sparks and Sun each in position to earn the No. 4 seed and a first-round bye. One can also slip to sixth depending on specific outcomes. Connecticut controls its own fate, earning the best seeding by beating L.A. outright. The Sparks need a little help, needing a Phoenix loss to accompany a victory.

The leagues’ best defenses have been able to slow the Sun all year. Winning eight of its last nine, Connecticut averages 87.3 points per game in seven played squaring off against those surrendering fewer than 79.4 a matchup. It is 5-2 SU and ATS with a positive points differential of 10.4 points. The Sparks own the best scoring defense in the league, yielding 76.6 points per game.

Sports Betting Resources’ Model Projection: Sun 84-76

Best Bet: Sun -4

Fever at Sky (-8)

Opening Line: Chicago -8
Opening Total: 164
Tip Off: 6 p.m. ET

This is the only regular-season contest with zero playoff implications. Expect the unexpected. Model projections have the Sky as 7-point favorites; not enough edge, nor confidence in how the meeting plays out to wager. Pass.

Sports Betting Resources’ Model Projection: Sky 81-74

Best Bet: Pass

Dream (-3) at Aces

Opening Line: Pick ‘em
Opening Total: 175
Tip Off: 6 p.m. ET

The Dream need to beat the Aces to assure a No. 2 seed in the playoffs, so expect a live effort here to close out the year. Early money realizes what is at stake. Oddsmakers pegged the matchup a pick ‘em in the opener, the line moving to -3 in Atlanta’s favor within hours. There’s still plenty of value in the price.

The Dream is a good bet when playing up-tempo. With a total over 163, Atlanta is 10-2 SU and ATS, topping a 0.6 average line by 6.2 points per contest. No team pushes the pace faster than the Aces.

Sports Betting Resources’ Model Projection: Dream 95-84

Best Bet: Dream -3

Wings at Storm (-7.5)

Opening Line: Seattle -7.5
Opening Total: 175
Tip Off: 7 p.m. ET

The Wings, after firing their coach last Sunday, punched a ticket to the WNBA playoffs in their 107-102 win over the Aces on Friday. They have no plans to lay over in this regular-season finale, viewing the top-seeded Storm as a good barometer test to the upcoming postseason. Dallas is looking to build momentum after losing nine straight before the Las Vegas victory.

The Wings will have to shore up the defense to pick up a shock win, and even cover the spread. Dallas is 0-6 SU and ATS catching points against teams posting more than 80.0 points per game. Seattle ranks second in scoring putting up 89.3 a night. Dallas yields 91.5 per tilt in this spot, failing to cover a 5.6 average line by an average 4.9 points.

Seattle wins easily, but likely pulls its foot of the gas late, helping to keep the final score lower than projected.

Sports Betting Resources’ Model Projection: Storm 88-79

Best Bet: UNDER 175